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The consumer battle in prediction markets is increasingly visible. Kalshi, Polymarket and newer entrants are expanding their sports products, while DraftKings, Flutter, Robinhood and a host of others are investing in exchanges, distribution and market-making capabilities.
In fact, behind those brands, a whole new sector is taking shape. Data and streaming suppliers, specialist market makers and technology companies are quickly invading the space.
The investment banking and capital markets firm Jefferies said in a September report that sports had become prediction markets’ “most important liquidity driver”, with combo and parlay-style contracts accounting for an increasing share of activity. But the analysts cautioned that prediction markets are scale businesses with relatively low revenue yields, leaving their economics dependent on sustained liquidity, engagement and trading activity.
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Atucha warns there is a tipping point where higher taxes can undermine channelisation, citing the UK and Germany as important case studies.
“I sometimes wish regulators would look at other cases,” he adds. “I mean, what happened in Germany, what’s happening in the UK.”
This risk is particularly apparent when many offshore operators are established brands rather than unknown entities.
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When it comes to attacking, free-flowing football, The Foxes are right up there and will surely produce a champagne performance. One player who has quietly been one of the Midlands side’s best performers this season is Belgian midfield magician Youri Tielemans, and at 4/1, he’s a great bet to help his side to an entertaining victory.
Our tip: Youri Tielemans to score and Leicester to win (4/1)
Europa League Round of 32 Fixtures (Second Legs)