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He compares the effect with sportsbook cash-out features, which gave customers more apparent control over their bets but may also have encouraged greater spending. The crucial difference is that an exchange customer can be facing a specialist whose entire business is identifying inaccurately priced contracts.
Kendrick sees a warning in the history of betting exchanges. In their early growth phase, there was sufficient retail liquidity for numerous market makers to profit. As that retail pool weakened, the sharper firms increasingly found themselves trading against one another.
His analogy is a poker table at which the weaker participants sustain the game. If those players disappear, the fourth-best professional at the table can suddenly become a loser because only the three strongest remain.
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Assuming that 8% spurt is realized, it’d be impressive because since the end of the 2025 football season, only Missouri and Alberta, Canada joined the live and legal sports betting party with Arkansas opening to DraftKings and FanDuel earlier this year.
Prediction markets have proven effective at attracting sharp bettors and high-rollers who are often limited or banned by traditional sportsbooks. However, consumer surveys indicate that when given the choice between a sportsbook and a yes/no exchange, most recreational bettors still prefer the traditional sportsbook interface. That dynamic helps explain why prediction markets remain in second place.
“Prediction markets represent a meaningful second channel for NFL wagering but still small on a relative scale, reflecting a new sector with less of an installed base,” observes EKG.
How to play Wild Overlords
Early Monday, Sept. 14, police tracked phones linked to the men to BB’s B.F.E. Bar & Grill in Latham, roughly 25 miles northwest of Decatur.
The Logan County Sheriff’s Office responded to check the venue and confirmed a break-in: power to the building had been cut, an ATM opened, and multiple video gaming terminals smashed and emptied of cash, according to affidavits.
Heckman and Ziemer were arrested later that morning. Subsequent searches uncovered burglary tools, gaming-machine cash boxes, a stolen Hyundai that had allegedly been repainted from red to black, and other stolen equipment, according to police.